Our Recommendation
Vote Conservative
The right-of-centre vote in Thornbury and Yate is split. Together the right-of-centre parties out-poll Liberal Democrat — uniting behind Conservative wins the seat.
Projected vote share
Projected winner: Liberal Democrat. Right-of-centre parties combined: 46.0%.
of Reform UK and Restore Britain voters switching to Conservative would be enough to win it — around 3 in 4.
The 2024 general election in Thornbury and Yate
Liberal Democrat won Thornbury and Yate in 2024 with 39.0% of the vote. On the right: Conservative 33.4% and Reform UK 14.1%. Together the right-of-centre parties took 47.5% — more than the winner — and still lost the seat.
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Registered at two addresses? Compare Thornbury and Yate with your other seat.
Nearby constituencies
- Bristol North East Reform UK
- Cheltenham Conservative
- Forest of Dean Conservative
- Gloucester Reform UK
- Monmouthshire Conservative
- Stroud Conservative
- Bristol Central Conservative
- Bristol East Reform UK
- Caerphilly Reform UK
- Filton and Bradley Stoke Conservative
- Hereford and South Herefordshire Conservative
- Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare Reform UK
Projections combine the 2024 result, published seat-level MRP polls, current national polling and recent local election results. They are a guide to where the right-of-centre vote is split, not a forecast of the result. How the recommendations work.