Frequently Asked Questions

To help right-of-centre voters avoid splitting the vote. In first-past-the-post elections, votes divided between Conservative, Reform UK, and other right-of-centre parties hand seats to left wing parties — even when the combined right-of-centre majority is larger. This site tells you which of the parties is best placed to win in your specific constituency so you can make your vote count.

Tactical voting means voting for your second-choice party when your first choice cannot win, in order to prevent an outcome you find worse. In right-of-centre terms: back whichever of the Conservative Party, Reform UK, or another right-of-centre party has the best chance of winning in your constituency — rather than splitting the vote and letting left wing parties through.

Our model analyses each constituency using four data sources: the 2024 General Election result, the most recent local and devolved election results, current national Westminster polling from members of the British Polling Council, and incumbency. It combines these to estimate each party’s vote share in every seat, then identifies which right-of-centre party is best placed to win. The recommendation follows the data — there is no editorial judgment involved.

The projection is entirely data-driven and runs through several stages for every constituency:

1. 2024 baseline — each constituency starts from the actual 2024 General Election result.
2. Polling adjustment — each party’s local share is adjusted in line with how their national (or regional) polling has moved since 2024, preserving relative differences between constituencies.
3. Local election evidence — results from the 2026 council elections in England, the 2026 Senedd elections in Wales, and the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections are used to cross-check the polling-based projection. Where local election results suggest a party is meaningfully stronger in a specific area than national polls imply, the projection is adjusted accordingly.
4. Incumbency — sitting MPs receive a small personal vote bonus reflecting the well-documented advantage of incumbency.
5. Defections — where an MP has changed party since 2024, their support in that constituency is attributed to their new party.
6. By-elections — seats that changed hands in a by-election after 2024 are updated to reflect the new result.
7. Left tactical voting — the model assumes a proportion of Green and Lib Dem voters will switch to whichever left-wing party is strongest in their constituency in order to keep the right out. Research and observed voting patterns in recent elections confirm this is a real and significant effect. This is accounted for as a fixed assumption across all constituencies.

Every input is from publicly available data. No weighting is applied based on editorial preference — if the data says a party will win a seat, that is what the model shows.

Projections are updated periodically as new national polls are published and as local election results become available. Because polls are snapshots, treat the recommendations as a direction of travel rather than a precise forecast — especially in seats where the margin between parties is small. If you have local intelligence suggesting the model is wrong for a specific seat, email us.

A “Could Win” seat is one where the combined right-of-centre vote exceeds the projected winner’s total, but those votes are currently split across multiple parties. In these seats, tactical voting could flip the result — they are the highest-priority seats for this campaign. You can filter for them on the All Constituencies page.

Yes. The chart on the homepage shows projected GB seat totals under 0%, 50%, and 100% tactical voting scenarios. Even at 50% — where only half of voters from weaker right-of-centre parties switch — the combined right picks up dozens of additional seats. At 100% tactical voting, the right-of-centre bloc becomes the largest grouping in Parliament. The challenge is coordination, which is exactly what this site aims to support.

• 2024 General Election results — House of Commons Library (CBP-10009), covering all 632 GB constituencies
• National polling — averages of recent polls from members of the British Polling Council
• Regional polling — Scottish and Welsh crossbreaks used where available
• Local election results — 2026 English council results, 2026 Senedd results, and 2026 Scottish Parliament results, used to calibrate the projection against the most recent actual voting behaviour
• Incumbency and defections — publicly available information on sitting MPs and party changes since 2024

The model is based on 2024 results, current polling, local election results and incumbency. If you believe the recommendation is wrong, email us with the constituency name, what the site shows, and what you believe it should show (with a source if possible). We review all reports and update our recommendations where the evidence supports it, so long as it is data driven.

No. This site is entirely independent and has no affiliation with, or funding from, any political party. The recommendations follow the data: whichever right-of-centre party is strongest in a constituency gets recommended, regardless of which party that is.

Voting Right | Uniting The Right UK is an independent, volunteer-run project with no party affiliation. If you’d like to get involved, share local intelligence about specific seats, or report an error, get in touch at info@unitetherightuk.com or follow us on X (@UniteRightUK).

• Share the site with right-of-centre voters in your area
• Follow and repost @UniteRightUK on X
• Send us local intelligence about specific seats — candidate profiles, canvassing data, local issues
• Email info@unitetherightuk.com if you spot a data error