Tactical voting guide · Wales

Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe

Winnable if the right unites

Our Recommendation

Vote Reform UK

The right-of-centre vote in Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe is split. Together the right-of-centre parties out-poll Liberal Democrat — uniting behind Reform UK wins the seat.

Projected vote share

Projected winner: Liberal Democrat. Right-of-centre parties combined: 46.0%.

28.7%

of Conservative and Restore Britain voters switching to Reform UK would be enough to win it — around 1 in 3.

Liberal Democrat 30.5%
Reform UK recommended 24.3%
Conservative 19.3%
Plaid Cymru 9.7%
Labour 9.2%
Green 3.3%
Restore Britain 2.4%
Other 1.3%

The 2024 general election in Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe

Liberal Democrat won Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe in 2024 with 29.5% of the vote. On the right: Conservative 26.3% and Reform UK 14.1%. Together the right-of-centre parties took 40.5% — more than the winner — and still lost the seat.

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Nearby constituencies

Projections combine the 2024 result, published seat-level MRP polls, current national polling and recent local election results. They are a guide to where the right-of-centre vote is split, not a forecast of the result. How the recommendations work.