Our Recommendation
Vote Reform UK
The right-of-centre vote in Cardiff South and Penarth is split. Together the right-of-centre parties out-poll Labour — uniting behind Reform UK wins the seat.
Projected vote share
Projected winner: Labour. Right-of-centre parties combined: 32.9%.
of Conservative and Restore Britain voters switching to Reform UK would be enough to win it — around 1 in 3.
The 2024 general election in Cardiff South and Penarth
Labour won Cardiff South and Penarth in 2024 with 44.5% of the vote. On the right: Conservative 13.9% and Reform UK 11.5%.
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Registered at two addresses? Compare Cardiff South and Penarth with your other seat.
Nearby constituencies
- Cardiff East Reform UK
- Cardiff West Reform UK
- North Somerset Conservative
- Vale of Glamorgan Reform UK
- Aberafan Maesteg Reform UK
- Bridgend Reform UK
- Bristol North West Reform UK
- Cardiff North Reform UK
- Newport East Reform UK
- North East Somerset and Hanham Conservative
- Rhondda and Ogmore Reform UK
- Wells and Mendip Hills Conservative
Projections combine the 2024 result, published seat-level MRP polls, current national polling and recent local election results. They are a guide to where the right-of-centre vote is split, not a forecast of the result. How the recommendations work.