Our Recommendation
Vote Reform UK
The right-of-centre vote in Caerphilly is split. Together the right-of-centre parties out-poll Plaid Cymru — uniting behind Reform UK wins the seat.
Projected vote share
Projected winner: Plaid Cymru. Right-of-centre parties combined: 37.4%.
of Conservative and Restore Britain voters switching to Reform UK would be enough to win it — around 4 in 5.
The 2024 general election in Caerphilly
Labour won Caerphilly in 2024 with 38.0% of the vote. On the right: Conservative 11.5% and Reform UK 20.3%.
Spread the word
Registered at two addresses? Compare Caerphilly with your other seat.
Nearby constituencies
- Ceredigion Preseli Reform UK
- Forest of Dean Conservative
- Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare Reform UK
- Monmouthshire Conservative
- Newport West and Islwyn Reform UK
- Pontypridd Reform UK
- Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney Reform UK
- Bristol North East Reform UK
- Cardiff North Reform UK
- Filton and Bradley Stoke Conservative
- Gloucester Reform UK
- Neath and Swansea East Reform UK
Projections combine the 2024 result, published seat-level MRP polls, current national polling and recent local election results. They are a guide to where the right-of-centre vote is split, not a forecast of the result. How the recommendations work.