Tactical voting guide · Wales

Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney

Winnable if the right unites

Our Recommendation

Vote Reform UK

The right-of-centre vote in Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney is split. Together the right-of-centre parties out-poll Labour — uniting behind Reform UK wins the seat.

Projected vote share

Projected winner: Labour. Right-of-centre parties combined: 34.5%.

18.1%

of Conservative and Restore Britain voters switching to Reform UK would be enough to win it — around 1 in 6.

Labour 25.7%
Reform UK recommended 23.8%
Plaid Cymru 21.7%
Other 8.5%
Conservative 7.8%
Green 5.8%
Liberal Democrat 3.7%
Restore Britain 2.9%

The 2024 general election in Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney

Labour won Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney in 2024 with 53.6% of the vote. On the right: Conservative 12.6%.

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Nearby constituencies

Projections combine the 2024 result, published seat-level MRP polls, current national polling and recent local election results. They are a guide to where the right-of-centre vote is split, not a forecast of the result. How the recommendations work.