Tactical voting guide · Wales

Llanelli

Winnable if the right unites

Our Recommendation

Vote Reform UK

The right-of-centre vote in Llanelli is split. Together the right-of-centre parties out-poll Plaid Cymru — uniting behind Reform UK wins the seat.

Projected vote share

Projected winner: Plaid Cymru. Right-of-centre parties combined: 44.0%.

16.7%

of Conservative and Restore Britain voters switching to Reform UK would be enough to win it — around 1 in 6.

Plaid Cymru 33.0%
Reform UK recommended 30.8%
Labour 15.6%
Conservative 8.5%
Restore Britain 4.7%
Green 3.7%
Liberal Democrat 2.4%
Other 1.4%

The 2024 general election in Llanelli

Labour won Llanelli in 2024 with 31.3% of the vote. On the right: Conservative 10.5% and Reform UK 27.6%. Together the right-of-centre parties took 38.1% — more than the winner — and still lost the seat.

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Nearby constituencies

Projections combine the 2024 result, published seat-level MRP polls, current national polling and recent local election results. They are a guide to where the right-of-centre vote is split, not a forecast of the result. How the recommendations work.