Our Recommendation
Vote Conservative
The right-of-centre vote in Eastleigh is split. Together the right-of-centre parties out-poll Liberal Democrat — uniting behind Conservative wins the seat.
Projected vote share
Projected winner: Liberal Democrat. Right-of-centre parties combined: 42.6%.
of Reform UK and Restore Britain voters switching to Conservative would be enough to win it — around 9 in 10.
The 2024 general election in Eastleigh
Liberal Democrat won Eastleigh in 2024 with 34.4% of the vote. On the right: Conservative 31.1% and Reform UK 13.3%. Together the right-of-centre parties took 44.3% — more than the winner — and still lost the seat.
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Nearby constituencies
- East Hampshire Conservative
- East Wiltshire Conservative
- Romsey and Southampton North Conservative
- Southampton Itchen Reform UK
- Southampton Test Reform UK
- Swindon South Conservative
- Chippenham Conservative
- Christchurch Conservative
- Fareham and Waterlooville Reform UK
- Farnham and Bordon Conservative
- Guildford Conservative
- Hamble Valley Conservative
Projections combine the 2024 result, published seat-level MRP polls, current national polling and recent local election results. They are a guide to where the right-of-centre vote is split, not a forecast of the result. How the recommendations work.