Our Recommendation
Vote Conservative
The right-of-centre vote in Rugby is split. Together the right-of-centre parties out-poll Labour — uniting behind Conservative wins the seat.
Projected vote share
Projected winner: Labour. Right-of-centre parties combined: 56.4%.
of Reform UK and Restore Britain voters switching to Conservative would be enough to win it — around 1 in 14.
The 2024 general election in Rugby
Labour won Rugby in 2024 with 39.9% of the vote. On the right: Conservative 30.8% and Reform UK 16.8%. Together the right-of-centre parties took 47.6% — more than the winner — and still lost the seat.
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Nearby constituencies
- Banbury Conservative
- Mid Leicestershire Conservative
- North Warwickshire and Bedworth Reform UK
- Nuneaton Reform UK
- South Leicestershire Conservative
- South Northamptonshire Conservative
- Aldridge-Brownhills Reform UK
- Bicester and Woodstock Conservative
- Birmingham Yardley Reform UK
- Buckingham and Bletchley Conservative
- Coventry East Reform UK
- Daventry Conservative
Projections combine the 2024 result, published seat-level MRP polls, current national polling and recent local election results. They are a guide to where the right-of-centre vote is split, not a forecast of the result. How the recommendations work.