Tactical voting guide · South East

Henley and Thame

Winnable if the right unites

Our Recommendation

Vote Conservative

The right-of-centre vote in Henley and Thame is split. Together the right-of-centre parties out-poll Liberal Democrat — uniting behind Conservative wins the seat.

Projected vote share

Projected winner: Liberal Democrat. Right-of-centre parties combined: 42.5%.

99.4%

of Reform UK and Restore Britain voters switching to Conservative would be enough to win it — nearly all.

Liberal Democrat 42.4%
Conservative recommended 26.7%
Reform UK 13.3%
Green 9.2%
Labour 5.1%
Restore Britain 2.5%
Other 0.8%

The 2024 general election in Henley and Thame

Liberal Democrat won Henley and Thame in 2024 with 45.0% of the vote. On the right: Conservative 33.2% and Reform UK 9.8%.

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Nearby constituencies

Projections combine the 2024 result, published seat-level MRP polls, current national polling and recent local election results. They are a guide to where the right-of-centre vote is split, not a forecast of the result. How the recommendations work.