Tactical voting guide · East Midlands

South Derbyshire

Winnable if the right unites

Our Recommendation

Vote Reform UK

The right-of-centre vote in South Derbyshire is split. Together the right-of-centre parties out-poll Labour — uniting behind Reform UK wins the seat.

Projected vote share

Projected winner: Labour. Right-of-centre parties combined: 58.1%.

0.6%

of Conservative and Restore Britain voters switching to Reform UK would be enough to win it — around 1 in 160.

Labour 28.7%
Reform UK recommended 28.5%
Conservative 25.3%
Green 7.0%
Liberal Democrat 4.8%
Restore Britain 4.3%
Other 1.3%

The 2024 general election in South Derbyshire

Labour won South Derbyshire in 2024 with 38.8% of the vote. On the right: Conservative 29.7% and Reform UK 19.6%. Together the right-of-centre parties took 49.3% — more than the winner — and still lost the seat.

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Nearby constituencies

Projections combine the 2024 result, published seat-level MRP polls, current national polling and recent local election results. They are a guide to where the right-of-centre vote is split, not a forecast of the result. How the recommendations work.