Tactical voting guide · Scotland

Central Ayrshire

Winnable if the right unites

Our Recommendation

Vote Reform UK

The right-of-centre vote in Central Ayrshire is split. Together the right-of-centre parties out-poll SNP — uniting behind Reform UK wins the seat.

Projected vote share

Projected winner: SNP. Right-of-centre parties combined: 40.3%.

23.7%

of Conservative and Restore Britain voters switching to Reform UK would be enough to win it — around 1 in 4.

SNP 26.8%
Labour 25.4%
Reform UK recommended 22.6%
Conservative 14.7%
Green 4.1%
Restore Britain 3.1%
Liberal Democrat 2.3%
Other 1.1%

The 2024 general election in Central Ayrshire

Labour won Central Ayrshire in 2024 with 43.7% of the vote. On the right: Conservative 14.8% and Reform UK 8.3%.

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Nearby constituencies

Projections combine the 2024 result, published seat-level MRP polls, current national polling and recent local election results. They are a guide to where the right-of-centre vote is split, not a forecast of the result. How the recommendations work.